Economic Populist Commentary

Economic commentary by a pro-capitalist, economic populist. Demand-Side Economic theory. Consists of author's economic views. Questions & comments appreciated. Dissenting views are VERY welcome and encouraged. Main "agenda" is crafting and advocacy of a "populist" economic agenda. A secondary goal is prevention of an economic Armageddon. Encouraging open discussion of US economy.

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Location: Southern California, California, United States

The author is a physician by profession, and a "student economist" by necessity. The current status of our economy necessitates the latter. The intent of this blog is to explain and discuss economics in layman terms. It is designed to promote thought and discussion. It is written by a layman. Comments and critiques of these theories and letters are welcome and ENCOURAGED. Dissenting comments are also WELCOME! They form the basis for discussion.

Monday, October 31, 2005


The most damaging factor to our economy today is the Wage-Productivity Gap. This refers to the increase in the hourly production of workers vs. the increase in hourly wages. This concept is described very well in Chapter 6 of economist Ravi Batra's book, "Greenspan's Fraud." During times of true economic prosperity, wages have kept pace with productivity increases. Workers have shared in the benefits of their increased productivity. The result is that wages remained sufficient to purchase our nation's industrial output. Borrowing, or debt-financed consumer spending, was unnecessary to maintain sufficient consumer spending to purchase our production. More production can be purchased because more wages are paid. In general, demand is created by wages, and supply is created by productivity. In a balanced situation, wages match productivity. This causes demand to match supply. This balance makes massive borrowing unnecessary. Such balance maximizes economic "growth."

This balance has not been maintained, however, during recent years. The wage-productivity gap has increased under the Bush administration. Productivity has increased significantly during the Bush years. In contrast, wages have actually decreased. This trend started before Bush took office, but I'll confine the time frame to December 2001 through March of 2005. These are years for which records are readily available from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Below is a link to a graph from the New York Times showing how productivity is outpacing wages.

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Starting in January of 2003, productivity (or output per hour) has increased 11.2% thru the 1st quarter of 2005. In contrast, real hourly wages declined 2.3% over the same time period, from an inflation-adjusted $8.32/hour in January, 2003, to $8.13/hour in June, 2005. Production has exceeded the ability of wage earners to purchase the production by 13.5%. This gap has been filled by consumer borrowing. ($200-300 billion/year of this "borrowing" has come from home equity loans.) In order to keep pace with increasing industrial production, the amount borrowed must steadily increase. If it doesn't, our economy will sink into recession. However, maintaining demand through borrowing is not a sustainable path.
(Statistics on U.S. Productivity can be found at: )

Sometimes the effect of the wage-productivity gap can be seen better from a distance. An example of this effect can be seen with Japan's economy. Again, this was described by economist Ravi Batra in Chapter 6 of his book, "Greenspan's Fraud." Dr. Batra makes a very compelling case that Japan's economic problems resulted from the increasing gap between Japanese wages and productivity. I will paraphrase his explanation here. Japan experienced extremely rapid growth between 1960 and 1975. During that time there was a 168% increase in per capita GDP. Their per capita GDP increased from $2,139 in 1960 to $5,750 in 1975. Real wages increased 217% during that time. Manufacturing productivity increased 264% during these 15 years. Japan prospered and its economy grew during this period because wages, which create demand, kept up with productivity, which creates supply. There was sufficient WAGE-FINANCED demand to stimulate production. And the necessary demand was maintained by consumer income, not consumer borrowing. After 1975, productivity growth began to outpace wage growth. The result was a much slower growth in GDP. Between 1975 and 1990, productivity increased 3% more than wages per year. During that period, wages increased 27%, while productivity increased 86%. The per capita GDP increase was 64% from 1975 to 1990. Less of the wealth produced by Japanese workers was being shared with them. As a result, business profits soared, increasing money available for investment. This caused Japanese investors to over-invest in both the stock market and housing. Japanese stock markets and real estate values soared as a result of this over-investment. Meanwhile, there was insufficient wage-financed demand to keep up with this capital investment.This necessitated increased levels of borrowing to maintain the demand that wages could not maintain.

By 1990 there was a huge Japanese stock market bubble and real estate bubble. And in 1990 this overvaluation all came crashing down. The Japanese economy has still not recovered 15 years later. By 2003, the Japanese stock market was still 80% below its peak in 1990. From 1990 thru 2002, per capita GDP increased 13%. Compare that with the 168% increase between 1960 and 1975. Compare this latter 15-year increase with the 59% increase during the 27 years from 1975 to 2002. Japan's per capita GDP increased 3 times as much during the 15 years prior to 1975, than it did during the 27 years after 1975. The pre-1975 rate of increase was 5 times faster than the post-1975 increase.

What caused this slowdown? The rise in the wage-productivity gap. Worker income that could have been put to good use buying Japanese goods was siphoned off as corporate profits. Since the benefits of investment capital are limited by consumer demand, the result was over-investment of Japanese stock and housing markets, and maintenance of consumer demand by borrowing.

Does this situation describe any other economy you can think of?




Anonymous DF said...

Hi there
I've been trying to put up this story of the wage productivity gap on several blog.
I read, brad setser at, general glut and mish
you can have a look, their posts are clear sharp and even fun.

I'm glad to see someone sharing my ideas.
Here are some of the stuff I thought I could add to complete your posts and help you answer to critics.

1 the wage productivity gap is global since the 80's. It shows up in all OECD countries (I ve done the work with the OECD stats), and accelerates with time.
It is also true in China. Let's remember China has an investment rate of 50% of GDP, most companies pay low wages and invest a lot. Investment boom.

2 Since you are physician you must know derivates better that I do.
If in a country, say USA, GDP is 100, investment 30, wages 70
and in another, say China, GDP is 10, investment 3, wages 7.
(there is no profit, companies invest all their gains, there is no savings, workers spend all their wages, i simplify stuff)

If population in USA is 10, china 50.
Then US labor annual productivity is 10, annual wages 7, china labor annual prody is ,5 annual wages ,35.

You will note of course that if things remain the same, there is absolutely no interest to shift production from the US to china, because chinese productivity is so low.

Yet, if foreign investment pours into china and local authorities help through training etc, chinese productivity can rise.
So we have for instance
China GDP 12, investment 3,5, exports 1, wages 7,5
Here we see that productivity has increased 20%, while wages have increased by 7%.
first point : poor countries are a bargain only if their wages are lower than productivity, and if there is a wage productivity gap in western countries, only if their own wage productivity gap is wider.

This is how outsourcing works.
Meanwhile in the USA
104, investment 30, import 1, wages 73.
All things equal, investment falls in the share of GDP because investment flows of shore, and wages rise in proportion of productivity.

And here is the second point I wanted to make. Have we seen rising wages in the western world ? No.
So how can western (or US) consumers afford foreign goods ?
And here is the trick. They get credit. Credit from exporting countries and credit from companies making profit (or banks working as intermediaries).

So in Fact you have
US GDP 104, investment 30, wages 71, import 1 AND incresed consumer debt : 3, may be 2,8 being debt of the US consumers to the US companies, and 0,2 being debt to china.

Now if you add profit and asset prices to the model it all looks even clearer. US companies are making profits by investing in china, US workers (especially the wealthiest minority) are earning revenues from their stocks and looking richer, they can spend more and borrow more.

So now what we have is a speed of adjustment. If china's wage-productivity gap is say 20% wider than in the USA, investment pours in at a given speed.
If it is 50% wider it pours in faster.

Normally when investment pours in, there's more demand for chinese workers and wages in china rise. There's less demand for US workers, they have less money to spend and it should balance out.

But, as we've seen, credit allows the game to continue, US consumers can spend more with stagnating wages. Meanwhile Chinese wages remain low because out of a population of 50, 40 remein poor peasants, a vast reserve army ready to work for low wages AND china is definitely keeping its currency low to boost exports.

So what we have also is an accelaration rate. The wage-productivity gap can widen in the USA and in CHina, or be reduced, and the gap between these two countries can also widen or be reduced...
What we are seing of course are rising gaps.

Finally, if you want to adopt a global market perspective, you can say that there is a global arbitrage between US and chinese workers. The problem is that the companies who are doing that arbitraging are doing it for a price, a profit. This profit is not redistributed fast enough especially to the chinese workers, therefore we have a lack of world demand, hidden by a massive world build up of debt.
US compani

3:26 AM  
Anonymous DF said...

And here is another commentary on debt accumulation.

it's rather simple. Back in the 50's, bank notes and coind accounted for 50% of money supply. The central bank thus controled directly 50% of money supply.
Now bank notes and coins account for 5% of money supply.
In the mean time reserve requirements have fallen and more and more money is created on the markets with no central bank supervision.
Once again this shows that the share of central banks money has fallen as a % of all money created.
THeir's no official stats on this, but let's supposed central bank money was once 60% of all money used for transaction and now sth like 6%.
said other wise 40% of money was created by private banks in the early 50's. Now 94 % of all money is created by private actors (banks and market actors).

So what ?

Well if there is a credit crunch, oops, when the credit crunch will happen, central banks will be powerless.
even 0% rates of interest are useless if private actors think that they are no people with the potential to repay the loan they ask for.
Say asset prices plumet, GDP falls and unemployment soars, where will there be consumers to whom some bank might want to lend ?
Nowhere. this is how deflation depression by debt works.
this is what happened in the 30's, and at the time imbalances were not as wide as today.

3:34 AM  
Anonymous DF said...

My recent comment was a bit long, but may be still not enough explicit.
Here s one even longer but which I hope you'll find interesting.

I thought I had to add some more words, especially on how the distinction made between wage and productivity growth, wage-productivity gap and wage productivity increasing gap are helpful to repel most worthless pro free trade bable.
1 a lot of people argue : free international trade help to raise world productivity and wages, therefore it is good.
There is no denying that free trade so far has helped world growth a rise in productivity and also wages world wide.
However, there is a growing wage productivity gap. And this is very dangerous for the stability of the economic growth. Because the wage productivity gap is so wide, only increased debt can give to the consumers the means to spend and companies the means to keep a decent level of profit.
The imbalances are now so great that it would be a miracle if we escape a major world depression, worse than the one experienced in the 30’s.

2 A lot of people then argue, it is natural for developping countries to have a higher wage productivity gap than developped countries. All developping countries have had this gap, including USA and germany compared to britain 19th century, or ireland and spain compared to rest of europe, or japan and korea etc.
This gap allows for an export led growth which speeds up the rate at which these countries catch up. What has always happened so far is that after some times, once productivity has risen to a level close to the developped world, wages catch up and the wage-productivity gap closes.
Therefore, those who want to force chinese to revalue their currency or increase wages want china to remain forever a poor country. People ought to remember (believe) that markets always ensure smooth rebalancing.

The point made above is that indeed the problem is not that china is having a higher wage productivity gap than the western world. The problem is that this gap is widening ever and ever and that there are very few reasons to believe that it will close itself in a smooth manner in the coming years.
What we are witnessing is a constant widening of this gap and what we can forecast is that this widening process will go on as long as the US and western consumers do not give up under the load of debt. Once that happens we will face an horrendous situation of excessive capacity. Spelled other wise : we are globally in the midst of an international trade bubble, profit bubble, investment bubble and housing bubble.
The stock bubble is indeed slowly deflating but this has been more than counter balanced by the rising bubbles in all other area.

3 Something mus be said about the international division of labor. Indeed most people argue :
international trade is the same thing as national trade. Nations specialise in the industries where they are the best, just like individuals specialise in specific profession. The division of labor helps productivity wages and is therefore good for all.

However, what we are witnessing globally is not only an horizontal division of labor. Indeed asians make textile, while western countries make planes. But that’s only part of the picture.

There is another very important aspect to the growth of international trade. Asians make consuming goods. Western countrise make producing goods and patent concepts. There is a vertical division of labor.

This is very important because, this vertical division of labor is one of the main causes of the present imbalances. This vertical division labor has indeed a negative impact on the stability of the national economies. For instance western companies holding patents, and making investment goods have a direct interest in selling to asia, even if this reduces production in of consumation goods in the west, they foster export led growth in asia, they foster an investment boom. Asians try to export as much consuming goods as they can to Europe.
Basically if one consider the economy from a global point of view, there is excess investment in production facilities. Most of these facilities are built in Asia but that’s not important. It would be the same if it happened within a close national economy, the thing is production facilities of consuming goods are increasingly too large for the spending power of consumers.
The increased vertical division of labor has led to excessive bets on future growth. Those who make profit out of the investment of others grow faster if others overinvest.

4 Finally I think a metaphor inspired from physics can help to understand everything better.

Ok so let’s say that an economy is a room with a given temperature. The warmer the room, the happyer the people are, the more also they become efficient as heat producers. People can either invent new warming systems, build the warming systems, or work for the warming systems (say radiators). There’s a law that says that the warmer the room, the more expansive it is to run radiators to produce heat. On the other hand, the warmer the room and the more the people in the room are ready to pay for one more unit of heat.
The production of radiators and conception of radiators are unaffected by the warmth of the room.
So there is a big room very warm, and it is called the USA.
Then next to it there is japan. Japan is very cold at first. Well some people from the USA move radiators to japan, they also conceive radiators and help japanese to build radiators. Meanwhile, the USA have started to specialise in inventing new radiators, and they begin to import heat from japan in exchange of selling concepts of new radiators.
Pretty soon because the japanese room is relatively small, the room is as warm as in the USA. When this happens, there is therefore little incentive to move production of heat from the USA to Japan. The trade becomes balanced.
Then comes China. China is a HUGE room, very cold.
In america most people find that it’s profitable to move radiators from the USA to china, sell them parts for building radiators, sell them plans on how to build these radiators and import warmth in exchange.
Here come some problem : the USA needs the heat, but the chinese can copy the plans on how to build radiators fairly easily, it s hard to monitor this. China produces lots of heat, but their room is still very cold. In fact it is becoming the main radiator of the earth. The USA are the main conceptors of radiators, their room is very warm, but they have less and less radiators. Soon they face a trade deficit and rely on credit.
A problem appears because while chinese radiators are overused, while new radiators are being built at a frantic rythm, most of the heat is used not to warm the room but to build new radiators, and sell heat abroad. The management is focused on building new radiators and not on rising the room temperature.
Pretty soon the temperature in the USA starts to reach a maximum and people can not buy anymore heat. Meanwhile construction pace in China is still frantic, they expect 40% rise of exports annually. When imports start to stagnate, may radiators find that no one is ready to buy their heat. Chinese may like it but only at much lower prices (because their room is still so cold). Indeed there are too many radiators in china. Lots of people working in order to build new radiators are laid off. The room gets colder ...
I think you all get the message. Once the global house cools down, the first place to be hit is the heating room : China. However the situation of the sauna : USA is not much better. It finds it difficult to pay for the heat it needs because no ones wants to build new radiators and people copy their plans. It can not repay the debt it has. It is forced to build new radiators at home and see the temperature fall in the room.

Conclusion : international trade just like the stock market is on a secular upward trends. However this trend includes severe corrections, like the one in the 30’s. The volatility of the fluctuation around the trend depends from the capacity to preemptively limit excesses and imbalances.
Imbalances include : wage productivity gap or said otherwise excessive investment in production goods (machinery), said otherwise again excessive vertical division of labor.
For 20 years now imbalances in international trade have risen to a point where only a major depression, deflation by debt and collapse of international trade can bring back things to some equilibrium, a much lower equilibrium in fact. It would be wiser if people and economic managers especially had the strength to take away the punch bowl before the party turned into a nightmare. If they acted now, if would still be better than if they wait for tomorrow.

6:30 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I want to respond to your comparison of today to the great depression. Again half truths. You need to start reading some academic papers, and get away from mainstream economic books.

I do agree that a lack of demand kept consumer spending low. But you have no mention of monetary policy, debt-deflation, and ultimately bank failures. The great depression, was great because the banking system failed. It did not have a lender of last resort, it was already experience banking defaults over its recent history. The stock market was selling stock on credit. Yes there are some comparisons, but overall its not the same.

On another note, you can't just use a different labor force participation rate to calculate unemployment. That LFPR corresponds to the current working age population. I notice you didn't report that in your numbers. I noticed you didn't report the number of jobs. I agree that jobs have been created like the 1990's. Bush has not done a good job with the economy. That does not excuse the poor reasoning and failure to explain your story fully. You should look at the enrollment of colleges in particular graduate schools over the past 4 years. Look at the birth rates and other factors. That will partically explain the difference.

11:40 AM  
Anonymous DF said...

I don't see where you see a difference with the 30's ?

dangerous lending practices ?
We're right there. THink freddy mae, their accounting troubles, and think that they have not the worse practices. Some are even more foolish.
THe amounts lent are way above what the federal bank (lender of last resort) can monetise.
And on top of that you have derivatives (it s the same as selling stock on credit, it's worse in fact).

It's true that employment is relatively high, so was it back in 1929. THe problem is wages and the wage productivity gap, not employment.

your mention of Bush is irrelevant. Bush or Clinton it makes no difference as far as the wage productivity gap and asset economy are concerned. Clinton let the dot com bubble happen. Bush is enjoying the housing bubble. The difference is not that big.

THe only difference is that Bush fiscal policy is completely suicidal, but this is just the cherry on the cake. The main problem is not the state of government finances, it may always print itself out of debt, but the household finances. THe gvt will not erasse consumer debt and when consumer start to save again and stop piling debt, the pary will be over.
FYI : US household saving rate : -0,6%

12:22 AM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...


Thank you for your comments. It sounds like we agree on a lot of issues. I'll have to comment further when I've read through your posts. I especially want to more carefully read the numerical references you use in your first post. I like to use numbers myself to illustrate points as well. Again, I'll have to go over that more carefully before I respond further.

Thanks again for posting. I hope you'll continue.


11:47 AM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...


I did want to commend you on your comment regarding productivity and wages in poor countries. You made an extremely profound comment stating "poor countries are a bargain only if their wages are lower than productivity, and, if there is a wage productivity gap in western statements, only if their own wage productivity gap is wider. Amen. (I hope you don't mind me putting a "," after the "and" in the quote.)

Also, I hope you don't mind if I borrow that statement and use it in some of my future posts. It's just too good a statement not to be repeated. Though I've tried to explain this concept in different words and by different methods, this phrase is much shorter and easier to follow.

You are right again when you say "This is how outsourcing works." It certainly is. The fact that the wage-productivity gap is so large in China is exactly why so much work is outsourced there. And now with the passage of CAFTA, the same will happen in Central America. And Aggregate American labor income will fall further, making it still harder for American consumers to spend enough to maintain adequate aggregate consumer demand. And the reduction in consumer demand will reduce labor demand and wages, which will result in still further declines in consumer production demand, as well as the demand for labor to provide that production. This leads to a continued, self-sustaining decline in consumer income and demand. I like to use the following "circular" flow chart:

Job loss --> consumer income loss --> consumer spending decline --> consumer demand for production decline --> decline in demand for workers to provide production --> More job loss.

As implied later on, increased borrowing by American consumers has allowed this wage-productivity gap to persist. With the collapse of the housing/debt bubble, consumer "deficit" spending will decline. As a result, consumer spending and demand are going to decline as well. If wages haven't recovered by that time, our economy will decline, and maybe even collapse. That time may be near. Katrina may have accelerated the time table for this.


12:29 PM  
Anonymous DF said...

I'm glad to see we're fighting side by side oh you potential guantanamo innocent and yet jailed for eternity...
Use and reuse the statement
"poor countries are a bargain only if their wages are lower than productivity, and, if there is a wage productivity gap in western countries, only if their own wage productivity gap is wider"
I replaced "statements" by countries again, you probably thought states and wrote statements ... :-)

just on an aside, I'm not 100 % against globalisation. As I tried to put in physician terminology, it s a question of speed, accelaration and mass.
Nafta as a free trade area for instance sounds manageable. Overtime wages in Mexico can rise to decent levels, the wage-productivity gap in mexico remains higher but not that much higher than in the US and canada, Mexico catches up slowly. Rising wages in mexico allows leads to a close to balance commercial trade. Growth is sound.

But you can't do that with china, it's too large. It's also too mercantilist. Wages will remain low for decades while productivity soars, the trade deficit for the US is enormous.
Not only adjustment happens too fast, but the imbalances are widening. We witness an accelaration when the brakes should be used at full...
Too large, too fast,and with imbalances growing. THere lies the problem.

It's the same thing with debt. Some debt is OK if it's a bet on future productivity growth. However the debt pile is now to heavy and the problem is we do not witness any slow reduction in the debt added let alon a small reduction of the debt level...

Have you ever played with lego ? Or any construction game ?
Imagine you pile up some stuff, build your babel tower.
Once it is very high, it is very advisable to slow the rythm of construction, spend time checking it is solid. In prevision of future wind, it might be even advisable to take away some bricks at the top.
If you don't slowly reduce the height of your tower, then suddenly a small hurricane katrina brings your pile of debt to the floor.
And if not that hurricane, then another perfect storm.

12:59 AM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...

Thanks for your response. We may differ somewhat on globalization. I am 100% against it. It reduces aggregate global labor income. The aggregate loss of wages for American workers (or any other high-wage country's workers) is never compensated for by the increase total wages in the lower-wage country. It is always a losing proposition for aggregate global wages as a whole. The result of this aggregate decline in global wages is a decline in consumer/labor income which further reduces consumer spending, demand for production, and the demand for labor to provide that production. The short-term result is to increase the wealth of the rich over the poor. The long-term effect is to make everyone poorer, including the rich.

Someone has to buy the goods produced. A reduction in global labor income reduces the ability of consumer/laborers to buy production. This reduces global demand for production, as well as demand for workers to provide that production. Again, global labor demand reduces global wages. The only ones who profit are business and corporations. But this is short-term only. In the long-run, business suffers as well.


2:13 AM  
Anonymous DF said...

You can't say that globalisation reduces aggregate labor income.
Even in the USA real wages are rising, very very slowly indeed, and I agree mean wages rise, while lower wages fall. But they do rise. (put it otherwise there is no agregate loss in wages in western countries, there may indeed be a growth under potential, but that's not a loss)

However globalisation has increased the wage productivity gap.
It's different. Wages grow, but productivity grows much faster. Because of that, only debt (and excessive investment in new production capacities) can provide sufficient demand.
(here you can say globalisation leads to sub potential wage growth)

That's for the basic.
Then if you look at things as they were until the 1980's for instance, globalisation helped japan's and korea fantastic rise, even earlier it helped the US and germany success.
THe difference was that the size of japan was small compared to the western world, so wages catched up easily.

THe problem we have now is not globalisation in itself, or international trade, but excess of globalisation, excess of trade. China is too big a dish for the western world to swallow. Investment pours in, productivity soars overthere and meanwhile wages stay put.

In this situation your comment is true
"The short-term result is to increase the wealth of the rich over the poor. The long-term effect is to make everyone poorer, including the rich. "

But if you keep saying globalisation depresses wages in nominal or even real term, you are mixing up things.
You mix up namely the wages and the wage productivity gap.
Wages are rising, (too slowly we agree on this, but they do rise).
The problem is the wage productivity gap.
You need to check your sayings carefully.

Besides, imagine wages were falling and productivity was falling at the same rate. In this case we would have an orderly recession. No big deal provided the fall is not too big.
The present danger is that wages are rising say 1% while productivity is soaring 4% globally. And this ensures that sooner than later we will have a credit crunch, general glut and disorderly correction.

So please specify :
Do you actually believe that wages are falling globally and in the USA ? If so, what are your figures ?
Do you believe that the problem is the wage productivity gap ?
If so, then you must admit that we could engineer a managed globalisation process that would not lead to a rising wage productivity gap , (And mind you the globalisation is not the only factor keeping wages down, anti union laws, tax cuts for the wealthiest also count)

7:00 AM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...


Again, I generally agree with you. I certainly do agree that globalization is increasing the wage-productivity gap. I think the way you've described it, it has become a huge problem.

However, I do believe it reduces aggregate global wages. If you substitute lower-wage workers for higher wage workers, it has to reduce aggregate global wages. In addition, as you have stated, it increases the global wage-productivity gap.

Inflation-adjusted wages have declined some in the United States. That information can be found at the United States Bureau of Labor statistics, at:
From this you can see that hourly wages have declined since December of 2003.

I think you have made a very good point about the global wage-productivity gap. It does appear that this is a much bigger factor than I'd initially assumed. And it causes an increasing inability of the world's work force to buy their own production.

5:56 PM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...


Here's the link to inflation-adjusted hourly wages:


6:11 PM  
Anonymous DF said...

it's true that real wages have fallen in the USA between 2003 and 2005 somewhat. But it's a small movement, over a short period of times. In 2005 they are rising again (but slowly), last quarter they even rised faster than productivity.

However if you look on the long period some 25 years for example, you see real wages rising (again, real mean wages, the low wages do fall) but real wages rise slower than productivity.

Look at the number I posted first jus to understand how in works in a theoric way.
Globalisation can and does boost productivity. Each country specialises in what it does best.
However the process can bee sped up if the poorer countries keep wages low (for instance with artificially low currencies, anti union policies or if they have a vast reserver army of workers, CHina does all of that).
When they have a huge wage productivity gap, those countries get foreign investment and they catch up faster...

BUt there is a problem.
If they don't catch up and are too big, at one time they pull the rich countries down instead of moving up.
There is a global lack of demand.

So My answer is in reality real wages have risen in the last 25 years, world wide, in the OECD and in the USA.
Meanwhile though, the wage productivity gap has risen.
Besides even if real wages had risen 100 % each year, since 1980 there would be a lack of demand if productivity had risen by 150% during the same time.

Real wages are not that important. the wage productivity gap is.

1:44 PM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...


Thanks again for your outstanding commentary. I do concede your point that the wage-productivity gap is a much bigger problem than American wage stagnation. We are thinking along exactly the same line -- that production is increasing faster than the ability of consumers to purchase that production. The only way this situation could have ever ocurred, is by massive amounts of debt-financed spending. Otherwise, production would have declined to the level of wages, because it would have been dependent on the wages of consumers alone, instead of wages + borrowed money.

I like to use American wages because the statistics are readily available. The wage-productivity gap is more difficult to demonstrate with statistics, as well as being somewhat more difficult to understand.

Again, you have made outstanding points about the increasing global wage-productivity gap.

My belief is that by allowing multinational corporations to shop globally for the cheapest labor, it allows them to pay lower wages for production. Thus, instead of the labor supply being limited by national boundaries, the supply becomes limited only by the total number of workers globally. Thus, the greatly increased supply of labor reduces wages, based on simple supply & demand effects. Instead of U.S. corporations being limited to 219 million American workers, the supply is expanded to include billions of workers. Obviously this is going to drop the "price" of labor, which means wages. The removal of national boudries as a limitation on labor supply not only reduces wages, it increases the wage-productivity gap. The same production can be provided at a fraction of the cost. For this reason, I think globalization is bad for all workers in the long-run. The income of non-American workers may rise over the short-term, but the global wages to buy their production will be reduced. As a result, global consumer spending, and the production demand it creates will decline. This will reduce labor demand, and reduce global labor income as well.

Thanks again for your outstanding input. I hope you will continue to post here.


1:20 PM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...


I posted a similar letter to this at General Glut's site. I want to post the supporting evidence for our mutual contention that the wage-productivity gap is a big problem, as well as a worsening problem.

Again, productiviy growth has far outstripped wage growth under Bush. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, productivity has increased 18.7% since January 2001. The link for this is:

In contrast, inflation-adjusted hourly wages have increased only 0.2% over the same period of time. The link for this is:

From this information it can be seen that there has been almost no wage increase corresponding to the huge increase in productivity.

There is every indication that this trend is not only continuing, but worsening. Inflation-adjusted wages have actually declined this year, despite the continued rapid growth in productivity. Inflation-adjusted wages have decreased 0.5% since January of 2005. In contrast, productivity has increased 5% since January. The gap between wages and productivity has increased another 5.5% this year alone. Again, all of these numbers can found at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics site given above.


3:02 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I posted lots of data yet in comments on the brad setser blog.
I never really did a clear sheet out of all of that.
I can look for data to present a clear post and we could do sth together. But I'll need time to do it.

I think the wage productivity gap is clearer, because for instage wages have risen very fast in many asian coutries. Yet slower than productivity growth overthere.
You have to realise that the wage in China for a peasant is the survival wage (remember marx) and its productivity close to it.
Bring on a factory, that peasant's productivity can triple, but you only have to raise wages by 10%, because there's such a pool of farmers ready to become workers.

If I could sum all the globalisation process, I would say its something like the artificial acceleration of a natural flow, that ends up messing it all.
A choice for acceleration that destroys momentum and confidence.

Let's say there's a mountain, you are falling down the mountain, you can either. Meanwhile you get tons of kinetic energy. You can either : try to stock pile your energy for harder times, or improve your engine with this energy to fall even faster.

I can't find a description that fits well. but it's something like this. Asian exporting countries exchange present faster growth against increased vulnerability to the health of the american consumers.
USA exchange present growth against increased vulnerability on the health of the lenders (and asian lenders of last resort)
Said otherwise, profits and investment enjoy a credit led boom.

12:40 AM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...


I certainly agree with your last paragraph. Asian countries, especially China, are exchanging the fast growth of today for the probable decreased health of American consumers of tomorrow. As a result, they risk losing their American export market.

And America is trading present "growth" against the health of lenders, especially those in China.

That leads to the conclusion that American pseudo-growth is being financed by lenders, instead of wages. And eventually those lenders will not continue to bridge the gap between American consumer spending and American wages. When that day comes, the American economy will sink.

1:15 AM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...


Have you read any of the books by economist Ravi Batra? He provides an excellent description of the "wage-productivity" gap in his book "Greenspan's Fraud." I think this book is excellent. It's easy to read and makes perfect sense.

1:18 AM  
Anonymous DF said...

nope, by the way, I live in France.
I'll try to put up some hard data with links next week or sth.

9:09 AM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...


I wanted to revisit a something you wrote under "3" on one of your previous posts.

I'm not completely sure what you meant when you said "The division of labor helps productivity wages and is therefore good for all."

If you're saying that division of labor between countries based on the ratio of productiviy to wages is good for all, I have to disagree. Moving production to an area where it can be done more efficiently (and cheaper) is a good idea in most cases, but not if it's being done only because wages are lower in that area.

The "comparative advantage" doctrine involves the relative productivities of different regions and countries. But it was meant to be applied to the other costs of production, not wages. If such moves are made simply to reduce wages, it reduces the overall global labor income necessary to buy goods. In this case, international movement of the "factors of production" simply increases profits at the direct expense of labor/consumer income. Modern day Supply-siders certainly favor this, as they refuse to accept the concept of a limitation on consumer demand. But even David Ricardo stated that such international mobility of production factors invalidated the comparative advantage doctrine.

Have I misunderstood your meaning in the sentence I quoted? (I suspect that I have misunderstood here.)


1:35 PM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...


Thanks again for your response.

It would be GREAT if you can post some hard statistics with links.

As you've probably discovered, it's very difficult to get honest economic statistics in the U.S. Everything is deliberated distorted or miscalculated to make the Bush Corporatocracy look as good as possible. The unemployment rate, and its distortion by the "labor force participation rate," is one of many examples. So any good links to economic data will be greatly appreciated.


1:41 PM  
Anonymous DF said...

Hi unlawful.
1 I've started my blog. I'm not sure if I'll post on a regular basis, but I notice you don't either :-)

I(s called

so far only one post. In french and english. A post that sums up the categorisation I make between network, market, law and hierarchy as mode of cooperation and the need to move towards more network cooperation... in a poetic and religious way. I suppose it is hard to understand for anyone else but me. But it's a start.

Now about your correction. I made a mistake. That's as simple as that. I meant to say :
The division of labor helps to raise productivity

and not productivity wage.

THere s no need to speak of international trade to understand the process.
Imagine a single national economy with small producers of a product.
A putting out system can be created where merchants take in charge the selling (to far away cities) and provide the raw materials (from far away colonies).
Now consider this putting out system, some capitalists may create factories. With factories they can increase the labor division and labor productivity per hour.

In itself, that's great. However, if they do not raise wages to match the rise in productivity and if this happens in the economy at large, they can't sell their production, unless they lend to their consumers (who are either their workers or workers of other factory owners) and you get the exact very same result as the situation with CHina US now.
There is an increase in world productivity per hour, not matched by world wages ...

1:03 AM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...


Thanks again for your letter. We're on exactly the same wavelength, as we used to say. If wages don't keep up with productivity growth, workers can't purchase their own production with wages alone. However, they can maintain spending through increased borrowing, which is what's happening in the U.S. today.

Regarding how often I post on my blog, I have many letters I could post on my blog. I try to limit it somewhat. I generally try not to post something that I've recently posted on a discussion board, until it has been there for awhile. Then I usually post it here if it seemed popular.

I think it's probably time for me to post my letter on "Keynesian Misinterpretation." Let me know what you think of it. It'll be a separate title.


2:28 AM  
Blogger Epimethee said...

what are the discussion boards you post in ?
May be I should join the party.

10:15 AM  
Blogger Epimethee said...

I've to go now, but I'll add a link to your blog on mine.
If you can pass around, you'll see a clear summary of the changes I see oncoming.

10:33 AM  
Blogger Epimethee said...

ink added, which boards then ?

2:05 AM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...

Here's a list of some of the boards I post on. There are others, but these are the ones I think your posts would be best for.



12:27 AM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...

Note to posters:

I delete anything that appears to be an advertisement for a product. Information-type site postings are OK, but postings that are advertisements for consumer products will be deleted.

4:48 PM  
Blogger SB Gypsy said...

The removal of national boudries as a limitation on labor supply not only reduces wages, it increases the wage-productivity gap. The same production can be provided at a fraction of the cost. For this reason, I think globalization is bad for all workers in the long-run. The income of non-American workers may rise over the short-term, but the global wages to buy their production will be reduced. As a result, global consumer spending, and the production demand it creates will decline. This will reduce labor demand, and reduce global labor income as well.

It's not a truly free market if the production facilities can be moved, and yet the labor must stay in place. It's why illegal aliens are such a problem - they become off the books workers, and drag down the price of labor.

Specialization also erodes the price of labor. As the huge conglomerates buy out all the family farms in the US, we have farmers who can no longer make it because the price of production on the corporate farm is low, and the quality is also low.

Corporate farms are there for a quarterly or yearly profit, family farms are there for a generational profit. Corporate farms are mining the farmland here in the US: we have already lost a third of our topsoil to erosion, because of corporate practices. Corp farms do long term damage to the land, whereas the family farmer wants the land to hand down to their children, and they improve the land as much as they can.

There is a direct comparison to the auto industry here. The year of the highest profit in detroit was the year they started closing down production and moving offshore. They were chasing lower wages and higher corp profits. The result is an ailing auto industry, which has abandoned serving their consumers, and only wants to ram down our throats what they want to produce, and not what we want to buy. They set their sights on monthly figures, and forget to take care of their industry. Then when their house of cards blows away, they scratch their heads and wonder where they went wrong.

10:18 AM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...

SB Gypsy,

Thank you for your comments. You made some excellent points. It certainly isn't a "free" market if capital can move in search of the cheapest labor, but labor cannot move internationally.

This demonstrates the problem created by free flow of capital, combined with the ability of consumers to purchase production with borrowed money, instead of wages. The increased ability of consumers to borrow has obscured the inherent defect created by globalization--that of consumer income being sufficient to purchase production.

The current "free" flow of capital and production facilities to the areas of cheapest labor is causing a continual decrease in aggregatate global wages. This process continues to replace higher wage workers with lower wage workers. Despite the decline in aggregate global wages, consumer spending has not declined. This is best illustrated in the United States. Consumer spending would normally fall with declining wages. However, spending has not declined by the ever increasing ability of consumers to borrow money to pay for consumer goods.

Eventually, however, consumer borrowing ability will not be able to compensate for continuing wage declines. When that point is reached, multinational corporations will not be able to sell all of their production. That'll lead to a decline in demand for production, and will result in a decline in output. It will trigger a worldwide recession.

Globalization and outsourcing cannot be justified by the doctrine of Comparative Advantage. When Ricardo developed this doctrine, he specifically stated it was not valid if there was free flow of the "factors of production" across international boundaries. It's amazing how many free trade proponents continue to espouse "comparative advantage," while ignoring Ricardo's caveat. Comparative Advantage does not apply to today's globalization situation.

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Econ Amateur here:

How disappointing that irrelevent topics like foriegn trade and outsourceing get dragged into this, when what you have is a good economic enigma. Where did the productivity go if the wage earners could not purchase it?

Clearly there must be another way to take a piece of the production pie, then being a worker. Providing capital is what made the extra productivity in the first place, but capital is just another worker created item like production. It would be a mistake to jump on it as somehow different. Which leaves us with the question, unless you are a Georgist economist. then you know where it went.

Natural resources, primarily land, take 40% to 65% of the production pie. Payments to land owners, unlike capital or labor does not make more land. Payment for land is needed for allocation, but when privatised as the pure privilege it is, it is also a dead weight loss. And these payments are growing.

The privilege of privateering land value, is recreating the gilded age, its class stratification, its crushing poverty, and all its other ills.

Racist schemes that blame foriegn workers will not avail any relief from this dynamic. And only serves to focus hate and attention away from where the solution lays.

The truth behind georgist analysis, was to me self evident, even after decades of sifting all the other B.S. Since it exposes privilege with mathmatical certainty and accuracy, its not a popular topic with schools backed by the privileged, and by their influence what passes for economic mainstream. But there are many highly intellegent people, who answer truth instead of the crowd.

I think a good place to start is here, be prepared for some new and heavy stuff.

If there are comments or questions they will be answered in the Economic Justice Discussion Room.

There I am known as Econ Amateur. I regret that I can not come back here, without invitation.

10:44 PM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...

Econ Amateur,

Thanks for visiting. I'm not sure what you meant when you said you "cannot come back here without an invitation." You can certainly visit this blog site without an invitation. And I am officially "inviting" you now if that's what you're referring too.

I'd also like to invite you to join my discussion forum, Economic Patriot Forum. You can post your own threads there, as well as respond.

I don't completely follow what you've written here. I'll try to address the points I do understand.

How disappointing that irrelevent topics like foriegn trade and outsourceing get dragged into this, when what you have is a good economic enigma.

Foreign trade and outsourcing are extremely relevant here. Outsourcing has allowed Corporate America to build its production facilities in foreign countries to take advantage of cheaper foreign labor. Unrestricted free trade allows American-owned, foreign located production facilities to ship the products of this cheaper labor back into the United States without restrictions. In effect, the low-wages of foreign workers undercut American workers. These are products American workers could have made, and received income for, and spent that income on American production. But with unrestricted outsourcing of jobs, American worker and consumer income is also outsourced. Furthermore, the reduction in job availability drives American wages down, making it even more difficult for Americans to buy their own production.

Where did the productivity go if the wage earners could not purchase it?

That's an important question, but a very simple one to answer. Wage earners have been able to purchase this additional production through increased borrowing. Thus, their declining wage-financed spending has been compensated for by increased consumer "deficit" spending. In other words, consumers have simply borrowed the money to finance their increased spending, despite wage decline. I would strongly recommend you read Ravi Batra's "Greenspan's Fraud." It's an outstanding book and very easy to follow. And it only costs about $25. The name is somewhat of a misnomer. It's more about current American economic policy. The Wage-Productivity Gap is explained in great detail in Chapter 6.

There are no "racist schemes that blame foreign workers." There are only propagandists that make such ridiculous false claims. Criticizing Corporate America for exploiting cheap foreign labor is not a "racist scheme." Labelling views or policies designed to protect American workers as "racist" is assanine. (And this is about as tactful as I'm going to be about such a ridiculous, childish comment.)

I really can't address the rest of your letter, as I can't follow what you're saying. Once again, feel free to re-post it at Economic Patriot Forum.

3:45 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I propose we begin to attack the companies that contribute money to the Republican Party and make legislative demands of them. I want to especially find people who live in the district of speaker Dennis Hastert and in Tennessee where Senator Frist holds office and begin a letter writing and email campaign to Speaker Hastert and Senator Frist send them this letter of legislative demands.

Join the revolution for progressive legislation at

I do not consider Bush a conservative. I consider him a Business and wealthy people activist to the extent that business and wealthy people has put the poor, middle classes to a disadvantage in this country.

Oh and the myth that Republicans appear strong on national defense and national security EXPLODED with the first plane that hit the world trade center on Sept 11, 2001.

Tell people in Speaker Hastert's district and in Illinois and in Tennessee to copy and paste the following text below and email it or mail it to Speaker Hastert, Senator Frist and the companies that I have mentioned for boycott.

Pass this progressive agenda or face a mass boycott of Republican contributors.

I demand that you get the Republican Party to hold a press conference and accede to these demands. Until such a press conference happens and the legislation and/or actions gets passed I will boycott products from Republican contributors Walmart, Wendy's, Outback Steak House, Dominos Pizza, Red Lobster, Olive Garden, Eckerd, CVS and Walgreens, Curves for women health clubs, GE and Exxon/Mobil.

I demand that congress pass legislation ending the war in Iraq and withdraw the troops and arrange with the United Nations to replace US troops with UN troops to defend Iraq until The Iraqi army can defend Iraq.

I demand that the Republican party end their aggressive and hateful action to end a woman's right to choose abortion or not.

I demand that the Congress of the United states and the president of the United States enact a law to increase the minimum wage to TEN dollars an hour and also to extend unemployment benefits to a year or more for all people whose unemployment benefits expired after 6 months even though they still seek work.

I demand that the Congress of the United States to not privatize social security benefits in any form including taking a percentage of the social security tax and placing it in private accounts. People can already create their own pensions with money after taxes in the private sector.

I demand that the congress make all of a person's earned income taxable for social security FICA tax purposes and remove the 88,000 dollar taxable income limit. This will make social security solvent for many years to come.

I demand the congress increase the payroll tax in order to make social security solvent as well.

I demand congress and the president enact a prescription drug benefit under Medicare Part B which covers 80 percent of medication cost, with no extra premium, no extra deductibles, no means test and no coverage gaps, and no penalties for signing up in a succeeding year.

I demand congress repeal the faulty Medicare law HR 1 / S 1 passed by congress in Nov 2003.

I demand congress enact single payer universal health insurance for every citizen as minimum coverage.

I demand that congress and the president enact universal vote by mail throughout the 50 states of the United States of America with paper ballots easy to fill out and difficult to change or invalidate by Republican Party officials. This will prevent Republicans from vote suppression by skin color and political party which happened electronically and in person in the 2000 and 2004 elections.

I demand that congress and the president enact that civil servants on every state payroll keep track of voter registrations and vote counting of mail in votes in each precinct and not companies such as Choicepoint. We need to take the Republican Party out of the business of keeping track of voter registration and counting votes.

I demand that congress and the president ban the secretary of state in each of the 50 states from engaging in politics especially acting as a campaign official for a presidential campaign.

I demand congress enact legislation protecting private pensions from corporations deliberately declaring bankruptcy or ending pensions outright.

I do this in the spirit of peaceful resistance to a congress that refuses to enact this legislation.

------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ -
You can also send your message to congress on the single issues mentioned above:

Tell your Representative and Senators to increase the minimum wage to $10 an hour and to extend unemployment insurance to a year and more.

Send your message from here.

Tell your Representative and Senators to pass 80% prescription drug benefit coverage under Medicare Part B and repeal the faulty Republican prescription drug discount passed in 2003.

Send your message from here.

Tell your senators that you demand that the Republican party end their aggressive and hateful action to end a woman's right to choose abortion or not.

Send your message from here.

Tell your Representative and Senators to end the war in Iraq.

Send your message from here.

Tell your Representative and Senators to enact U.S. vote by mail with paper ballots counted by civil servants.

Send your message from here.

Then after you send your message to Speaker Haster and Senator Frist, contact these companies and tell them that you have begun a boycott of them until the Republican Party enacts these demands.

You can contact ME at and place the word PRIVATE in the subject line ot it will not reach me.

Join the revolution.

Tell South Dakota Governor Rounds that you will not make the rounds in SD.

Call 605 773 3212 and tell Governor Rounds that you will not buy South Dakota products nor will you see Mount Rushmore nor travel there until they repeal the abortion ban.

Spread the word.

You can also browse for telling the South Dakota Travel and Tourism department that you have cancelled plans to travel there until the legilature repeals the abortion ban.

If anyone wishes to reach me by email you can send email to

and place the word PRIVATE in the subject line. It will not reach me if you do not put the word PRIVATE in the subject line.
I have read that Louisiana and Tennesee Republicans also plan to attemppt to pass antiabortion legislation in state governments. Contact the governors of these states too and tell them you will boycott products in these states especially Dominos pizza and Curves for women health clubs

We need to hit Republican contributors in their wallets.

George W Bush: A CHIMP that will live in INFAMY.

Please sign this petition to congress.

I seek activist volunteers in Speaker Dennis Hastert's district in Illinois to contact me for a project that will force the speaker to enact progressive legislation. I also seek volunteer activists in Tennessee to contact me for this project to force Senator Frist to enact progressive legislation.

If you want to send me email please place the word PRIVATE in the subject or it will not reach me. Thank you.


Join the revolution for progressive legislation.



Next time you fax, email or call a senator or representative, include this in with your demand:

Until the legislation or action I demand gets done I will boycott products from Republican contributors Walmart, Wendy's, Outback Steak House, Dominos Pizza, Red Lobster, Olive Garden, Eckerd, CVS and Walgreens, Curves for women health clubs, GE and Exxon/Mobil.

Hold Republican contributors accountable for their officeholders opposition to progress.
Then call each company listed above and demand the CEO get the house of representatives and senate to pass your legislative agenda and the president sign it or they will face a boycott.

So you say that a boycott will take time or will not work?


Idiot conservatives called CBS 3 or 4 years ago in droves to protest the airing of a Reagan movie they did not see but heard that it would not portray Reagan well. They threatened a boycott of CBS and the advertisers.

That did not take long to get CBS to shift the movie over to showtime which had a much smaller viewership.

Many progressives called Sinclair Broadcasting in droves before the 2004 election threatening a boycott of them and their advertisers if they would not take a movie smearing John Kerry off the air. It worked quickly.

If we can get a movie off Sinclair stations then whey can't we call companies in droves that give money to the Republican party and their candidates and Republican senators and representatives and threaten them with a boycott in order to get a comprehensive progressive agenda passed?

Why not?

10:06 PM  
Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...


Thank you for your letter.

Regarding your boycott of Republican supporters and your proposals, I completely agree with all of them except one.

I don't want to see another half-hearted Medicare Prescription Drug Bill passed that is nothing but a Pharmaceutical Company Welfare Program. The next bill of this nature needs to have strict price controls. There's nothing "free market" about taxpayers being forced to pay the government to pay a private company for goods or services. It's absolutely non-free market. As such, the pharm companies have no right or justification to charge any price they'd like. There is no price competition when consumers aren't paying the price directly. And there's no justification for allowing them to charge the government (and the taxpayer) as much as they can get. So I would repeal the law we have now, and not implement anything until the bugs are worked out. The bill we have now is worse than nothing. It's just a giveaway to the Pharmaceutical Industry/Cartel. And it is helping to bankrupt Medicare, which is already in financial trouble.

Other than that, I completely agree and support your efforts. I should also point out that a $10/hour minimum wage, though desirable, will be a hard sell. Once again, however, you've posted a great set of proposals. I would also encourage you to post at my discussion board at EconomicPatriotForum. (I think you've already done this.) I would encourage others to do likewise.

Thanks again for posting here. I hope you'll continue.

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