Economic Populist Commentary

Economic commentary by a pro-capitalist, economic populist. Demand-Side Economic theory. Consists of author's economic views. Questions & comments appreciated. Dissenting views are VERY welcome and encouraged. Main "agenda" is crafting and advocacy of a "populist" economic agenda. A secondary goal is prevention of an economic Armageddon. Encouraging open discussion of US economy.

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Location: Southern California, California, United States

The author is a physician by profession, and a "student economist" by necessity. The current status of our economy necessitates the latter. The intent of this blog is to explain and discuss economics in layman terms. It is designed to promote thought and discussion. It is written by a layman. Comments and critiques of these theories and letters are welcome and ENCOURAGED. Dissenting comments are also WELCOME! They form the basis for discussion.

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

HOUSING BUBBLE UPDATE, 8/3/06



The Housing Bubble deflation continues to gather speed. Both New and Existing Home Sales are declining. Home mortgage applications are declining. Price appreciation has come to a complete stop. In fact, prices are falling in many places. Inventories of unsold New and Existing homes have increased dramatically over the past year. Residential Construction Investment has declined for 3 straight months. There is little doubt that the Housing Boom has ended. The only questions now are how big the crash will be and how badly it will affect the economy.

The recent New Home Sales report showed a much larger decline than was anticipated by the so-called "experts." The decline from the original numbers posted from May was actually -8.3%. However, May's numbers were downwardly revised by the government so that the decline in June home sales would not look as bad. Following this manipulation, June New Home Sales were reported as having declined only 3%, not 8.3% (like they actually did.) Below is a link to a copy of the "before" and "after" New Home Sale numbers. The top half of the graphic shows the current New Home Sale numbers superimposed on the previous month's numbers showing what the actual change WOULD have been, had the previous months' numbers not been downwardly revised. The bottom shows the currently "revised" (manipulated) numbers.



The updated version of the New Home Sale decline can be found at Briefing.com at: Briefing.com

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 103,000 New Homes were sold in June of 2006. This is 12,000 less New Homes sold than the 115,000 sold in June of 2005. This is a decline of 10.4% from the previous June. Meanwhile, the number of New Homes on the market at the end of June was 570,000. This is 112,000 more homes on the market than June 2005's 458,000. This is an increase in the number of homes for sale of 24%. Thus, while the "demand" for New Homes is declining, the "supply" is increasing. As this trend continues, prices will definitely fall even further. This information can be found at the U.S. Census Bureau's New Home Construction.

Existing Home Sales are also declining. June 2006's annualized Existing Home Sales rate of 6,620,000 was 650,000 less than June 2005's rate of 7,270,000 per year. This is nearly a 9% decrease over the last year. The actual number of Existing Homes sold in June 2006 was 700,000, which is 7% less than June 2005's 753,000. The overall price change since June of 2005 was only +0.9%. This is a significant decline in home appreciation from 2005's 9% annual increase, and 2004's 10% increase. Furthermore, were it not for a year-over-year increase in Existing Home Prices in the Northeast, the nation's existing home prices would have declined. Both the Midwest and South areas showed price declines, while the West area had a 0.0% annual increase in price since June 2005. This information can be found at the National Association of Realtors' Existing Home Sales.

In the West, Existing Home Prices have declined -3.4% since their peak $354,000 in November of 2005 to $342,000 at the end of June 2006. Over the last 7 months, Existing Home prices in the West have declined at an annualized rate of -5.8%. In Los Angeles County, median home prices have declined -5.4% in the last 12 months. The decline in prices has been even larger in the homes at the 75th percentile in price, where prices have declined -11% in the last 12 months. This can be seen from the modified graphic below, showing prices from 8/14/05, as well as current prices. (The 12-month change is indicated in blue, with actual numbers horizontally across from the label.



This information can be found in it's original, unmodified form at Housing Tracker


The Pending Home Sales Index of existing homes has declined -9.6% since June 2005. In the West, the Pending Home Sales Index has declined -14.2 % since June of 2005. This information can be found at Realtor.org

Home loan demand has also declined considerably. The Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity (which includes both refinancing and home purchasing loans) decreased 1.2% for the week ending July 28. This is its lowest level since May 2002. In the words of economist Drew Matus of Lehman Brothers, "The data suggest that the housing market is cooling and it's cooling pretty substantially." This information can be found in the Yahoo News Story Home Loan Demand Sinks to Four-Year Low.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted purchase index declined for the 3rd straight week, dropping 3.3%. This is the lowest it's been since 2003. The purchase index has dropped -24% over the last year, which is consistent with a major decline in the demand for homes.

Residential construction spending has also declined 1% or more for 3 straight months. The year-over-year change in residential construction spending is -0.1%. Most likely this is a response to a continual decrease in demand for homes, and an continual increase in the supply of homes for sale. This information can be seen from the graphic below from Briefing.com's "Construction Spending" under the sub-heading "Residential."

Construction Spending



This information can be found at Briefing.com's Construction Spending

All evidence indicates the Housing Bubble is deflating. Even now, annualized numbers give a more benign picture than is actually the case. The deflation of the Housing Bubble has greatly accelerated over the last 7 months, and is anticipated to accelerate even further. This is definitely not a good time to buy a house. The days of home price appreciation have ended, and are being replaced by price depreciation.

EconomicPatriotForum

121 Comments:

Blogger John said...

Hey, I live in Atherton, Ca (most expensive zip code, 94027) and median and average home price data from first half of 2005 compared to 2006 shows about 30% increase of each and days on the market has decreased noticably...I think that the real estate issue is still determined by location, location, location. My neighborhood is hot and most everything sells in the over 1 to 5 million range.

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Blogger unlawflcombatnt said...

John,

The year-over-year price changes are deceptive. Prices in most areas of the U.S. peaked in the August-October 2005 period, and have been declining since. Check the prices over just the last 6 months and you'll get a better perspective.

Prices in Southern California, Phoenix, and Las Vegas have all declined over the last 6 months. Price declines don't appear as large in Northern California as of yet, except for Sacramento, but appear to be stagnating at present.

It's always possible that a particular location will not follow the overall national trend. That's very unlikely, however, if the prices have increased dramatically. The only fundamental driving home price increases over the long-term are rising wages and employment. In other words, the ability to pay more for a home is the real long-term driving factor. Real wages have declined in most of California, while home prices have risen astronomically. The price increases are completely unsustainable. Prices cannot continue to rise above buyers' ability to pay those prices. This ability to pay has been extended by the multiple forms of "creative" financing now available, which practically enable a homeless person to buy a house. Californians, and Americans in general, are borrowed out. They've simply run out of ability to further increase demand with borrowed money. And prices are now declining as a result.

Worse still, prices have a long way to drop, as they have been rising much faster than the incomes of buyers since the late 1990s. It's a case of "what goes up, must come down." Expect to see home prices retreat to the percent of buyers' income that existed in the middle to late 90s. Which means many home prices will decline over 50%. There will probably even be a period of "overshoot" on price declines to levels that are even below what stable market prices should be.

If you're holding your home mainly as an investment, now is the time to sell, and cut your asking price if necessary. It's only going to decline more over the next couple of years. In fact, prices may continue to decline much longer than that.

Those who sell now near the peak (or, at least, not too long after the earlier peak) will make out like bandits. Those who refuse to face reality, and deny the existence of the ongoing crash, will lose big. Those relying on wishful thinking, supported by the convenient propaganda of the real estate industry, will get burned. Those relying on logic and facts will do better.

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